Global Macroeconomic & Industry Key Themes 2022

In the coming year, we see a still-complex global economic environment, with major issues such as high Covid-19 infection rates, above-target inflation, supply chain risks continuing, and several new challenges arising.

The global economy will be moving into a later stage of its cycle, and there will be significant uncertainty around the outlook for interest rates, global political risk and the path of Covid-19. 

Discover our view of the key global macroeconomic and industry themes that will shape 2022.

Key Political & Macroeconomic Themes

Key Global Macroeconomic Themes For 2022

We see a still-complex global economic environment. Major issues such as high Covid-19 infection rates, above-target inflation and supply chain risks will carry over into 2022, when new challenges will also arise.

Emerging Markets Key Themes for 2022

As the economic effects of Covid-19 fade and the global recovery moves into its next stage, policymakers are now having to manage the difficult process of dialing down stimulus measures and preparing for the new normal.

Regional Key Themes

Asia Key Themes For 2022: Uneven Recovery Ahead

We expect that many of the themes that dominated 2021 will cause spillovers in the new year even as we move closer towards economic normalization. The uncertainty regarding monetary policy, rising inflation, the rollout of vaccines and new variants suggest that the policymaking environment will remain challenging. Moreover, rising geopolitical factors will increasingly become a feature as tensions between China and Taiwan grow.

Europe Key Themes For 2022: Energy Poverty Could Lead to Political Instability

While we continue to expect growth in developed Europe to remain above potential, we are increasingly concerned about the headwinds faced by emerging Europe. We focus on the region’s energy crisis and expect to see the political issues that are driving this become more acute. The Covid-19 pandemic remains a concern, especially given that vaccine hesitancy remains high in emerging Europe.

Latin America Key Themes For 2022: Growth to Underperform as Policy Dilemmas Mount

Economic growth in Latin America will slow significantly in 2022, making the region’s recovery an underperformer among emerging markets (EMs). We forecast regional growth will slow to 2.5% in 2022 as the tailwinds that drove the region to estimated 6.2% growth in 2021 fade.

Middle East and North Africa Key Themes For 2022: Two Speed Recovery Gathers Pace

We see a brightening outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the year ahead, as the region begins to shake-off some of the worst effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and moves toward greater economic normalization.

Sub-Saharan Africa Key Themes For 2022: Growth Returning Close to Trend but Vulnerabilities Persist

While we assume a moderate pick-up in economic momentum facilitated by greater progress on Covid-19 vaccination programs and further easing of pandemic-related restrictions on consumer and business activities, the stability of region-wide growth obscures significant shifts at the sub-regional level.

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Key Industry Themes

The Year Ahead Global Industries Outlook 2022

Our Global team expects that 2022 will bring almost full economic normalization. Improved Covid-19 vaccine supply, booster programs and enhanced therapeutics will allow countries to manage the pandemic while returning economic activity to 'normal'. We expect this to be primarily driven by developed markets (DMs), which will experience above-trend growth, with emerging markets likely to struggle again in 2022.

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Key Themes For 2022: Covid-19 Therapeutics

Medicines soon to be approved will reduce Covid-19 hospitalisations in 2022, although supply will be tight. Companies will see significant revenues from these new products and larger profit margins than Covid-19 vaccines.

Consumer & Retail Key Themes For 2022

2022 will be a year of continued recovery for the consumer sector. The key themes are divided into digital and environmental trends, which include insight into how consumer brands will embrace and adapt to the evolution of the Metaverse, the move of Biowearables, and the desire of greater convenience by consumers as delivery times for e-Commerce become even more rapid.


Food & Drink Key Themes For 2022

Consumers seek greater insight into their food and drink purchases, not just the nutritional information but, increasingly, into how environmentally friendly products are. We believe 2022 will mark the beginning of Carbon Labelling being actioned, with the drive being led by food & drink brands themselves, although we highlight that government regulation is likely in the longer-term.


Autos Key Themes For 2022

Many of our Autos key themes for 2022 relate to the industry's response to events of 2021, including supply chain disruptions, rising costs, and increasing decarbonization goals. However, we also expect to see a growing emphasis on some areas of the industry that were deprioritized while dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic, such as autonomous vehicles and how to commercialize them.


Telecommunications, Media & Technology Key Themes For 2022

The pandemic has created a monumental surge in the demand for data, and digital infrastructure is using more energy than ever before. At Fitch Solutions, we do not expect the heightened data demand to ease and therefore we believe sustainability will become a top priority in the future strategic agendas of telcos, particularly over the near term as the wider climate discussions remain relevant in the wake of COP26.


Infrastructure Key Themes For 2022

In 2022, we expect global construction industry real growth will moderate relative to 2021, as markets continue to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic gradually and base effects normalize. We believe that growth will remain slightly above the pre-Covid-19 pandemic average over the coming years, as fiscal stimulus efforts by many governments use infrastructure investment as a way to stimulate economic recovery.


Oil & Gas Key Themes For 2022

The changing landscape of oil and gas investments is likely to be permanently altered from the rise of the energy transition as a greater share of capital expenditures is diverted to low carbon efforts, further reducing upstream exploration and development. However, NOCs remain committed to fossil fuels and their investments are expected to rise in 2022 led by major oil exporters and China.


Power & Renewables Key Themes For 2022

In the wake of the energy price crisis and COP26, the need for renewable power sources has become increasingly more pertinent. We foresee sustained growth in hydrogen production capacity through the coming decade, and new hydrogen-fueled electricity generation projects coming into the pipeline over 2022.

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Commodity Prices Key Themes For 2022

We expect commodity prices to ease in 2022 from current levels and forecast most commodity prices to average lower on a y-o-y basis, as we see supply improving while demand growth will ease. However, we expect commodities to remain elevated compared with historical levels, amidst a still-supportive macroeconomic backdrop and low stocks.


Mining & Metals Key Themes For 2022

Following a year of record profitability and revenue in 2021, the outlook for miners and metal players remains positive. Global mineral and metal production will likely rise, and capital expenditure will remain on its recovery trend. Although we forecast most metal prices to average slightly lower in 2022, they will remain very elevated by historical standards.


Agribusiness Key Themes For 2022

On the whole, we expect that agricultural prices will fall across the board in 2022 as favorable weather boosts supply and increases market surpluses. Lower prices, along with an increase in production costs, will weigh on farmer profitability and investment in agri-machinery.

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