Ukraine and Kazakhstan: What’s Next?
Friday, 14th January 2022
Webinar | 14:00 London GMT | 09:00 New York EST
Tensions are rising in Eurasia as the build-up of Russian troops along Ukraine’s eastern border heightens concerns over invasion, while Russia prepares to send a peacekeeping force into Kazakhstan to help quell unrest, in support of the Moscow-allied President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
In this webinar, we examine the situation in both countries, outlining our core view and considering alternative scenarios. In each case, we talk about the economic implications, touch on the impact on the highly important Oil & Gas sector and consider what the developments mean for wider geopolitical stability.
Topics covered will include:
- Will Russia’s troop build-up on Ukraine’s eastern border ultimately lead to invasion or will the two sides avoid military conflict?
- What has been agreed at the Russia-NATO talks, and what are the areas of continued disagreement?
- Oil & Gas implications: When will Nord Stream 2 come online, and will the current tensions have an impact on that timeline?
- What caused the large-scale protests, and can we expect similar unrest elsewhere in the region?
- Is a prolonged military presence by Russian forces likely, and what impact, if any, will it have on Russia’s policy toward Ukraine?
Head of Global Political Risk
Yoel specializes in domestic political and social transformation, regional security risks, great power rivalry, and long-term forecasting. Yoel has a Bachelor’s degree in geography from Oxford University, and a Master’s degree in Theory and History of International Relations from the London School of Economics (LSE). He has worked at Fitch Solutions since 2003.
Senior Country Risk Analyst Europe
Lorenz Unger is a Senior Analyst in the Europe Country Risk Team. He is based in the London Office and specialises in Western and Emerging European markets, and leads the teams euro forecast. Prior to joining Fitch Solutions in February 2016, Lorenz completed his MA degree in European Public Policy at Kings College London.
Europe Country Risk Analyst
Lucinda Ritchie joined Fitch Solutions in 2019 under the first Associate Analyst Programme and, having rotated through a number of Industry and Country Risk teams, became a permanent member of the Europe Country Risk team in September 2020. Since university, Lucinda has specialised in Eastern Europe, first as part her undergraduate History degree at the University of Edinburgh and then during her Master’s degree in Political Analysis of Russia and Eastern Europe at UCL. Lucinda covers Russia, Belarus, Poland and the Netherlands.
Industry Analyst Oil & Gas
Adam Russell works to identify and analyse key trends in the oil and gas markets. Prior to joining Fitch Solutions, Adam previously worked as a Market Risk Analyst at SmartestEnergy Ltd, the UK’s leading purchaser of independent generation and supplier of renewable electricity. Adam has experience in the UK gas, power and renewables market. Adam holds a Masters Degree in International Financial Markets and Bachelor’s Degree in Geology, both from the University of Southampton.
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.